Oopsy.
Tracking the end. Calmly.
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Tracking the end. Calmly.
Tracking the end. Calmly.
A dashboard for slow catastrophes and fast ones. Most of what is here is measured — satellites, seismometers, network telemetry, market data — rather than inferred from how much anyone is talking about it. Where a number is a judgement call, the workings are shown so you can disagree with them specifically.
Each tab's composite, live. None is a forecast and none carries a probability — click any of them for the components and arithmetic.
Events above alert thresholds, from satellites, seismometers and network telemetry rather than from coverage.
Corroborated by multiple independent outlets in the last 24 hours. Syndicated reprints do not count as corroboration.
Carried by state-controlled outlets with no independent pickup. Not proof of falsehood — the signature of a narrative being pushed.
Most of what is here comes from satellites, seismometers, network telemetry and market data rather than from how much anyone is talking about it. Where coverage volume is the measurement — the Information tab, the anomaly categories — it is labelled as coverage, not as the event.
Syndicated copies collapse into one story before anything counts them, and only registered, non-state outlets count as independent sources. One claim reprinted twenty times is one source, and treating it otherwise is exactly how a single assertion acquires the appearance of consensus.
The gauges are hand-weighted composites, not forecasts, and none carries a probability. Click any of them to see each component, its weight, its arithmetic and its raw inputs, so you can disagree with a specific number rather than with the result.
A source that fails is reported as unavailable and dropped from the arithmetic, with the remaining weights renormalized. An outage must never be able to read as calm. The Status tab names every source and whether it answered.
Parties are named as the datasets and the reporting name them — institutions, states, organised groups — with no entry coded by party or ideology, and no side assigned aggressor or defender. State media are labelled on all sides, including Western ones; labelling only adversaries would make the registry itself propaganda.
Participants, casualty ranges and treaty obligations are hand-maintained and carry the date they were last reviewed. Casualty figures are shown as ranges across commonly cited estimates, because reporting a single number where sources differ by an order of magnitude would be the dishonest choice.